15.12.202516:28:35UTC+00Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Low

Arabica coffee futures have declined to approximately $3.8 per pound, the lowest level observed since October 10. This decrease is driven by the anticipation of enhanced coffee supplies from Brazil, the world's leading coffee producer. A report by Hedgepoint Global Markets, released on December 12, anticipates Brazil's coffee crop for the 2026/27 season to yield between 71 and 74.4 million bags. The favorable rainfall from October to November has positively impacted Arabica flowering, while robusta production continues to be robust, thereby aiding in the replenishment of global coffee inventories. The forecast suggests Arabica production could reach between 46.5 and 49 million bags, an increase from the 37.7 million bags harvested in 2025/26. Robusta output is expected to be between 24.6 and 25.4 million bags. Additionally, Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, has increased its total coffee production estimate for 2025 by 2.4%, reaching 56.54 million bags. This figure represents a 4.3% rise from 2024, indicating the third-largest production output on record, despite it being an "off-year" in the biennial Arabica production cycle.