Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1724 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 40 pips.

Yesterday's strong ISM manufacturing index data was a factor in the US dollar's growth against the euro. The escalation of tensions between the US and Iran also led to a sell-off of risky assets and a strengthening of the American currency. Investors seeking safe assets rushed into the dollar, reinforcing its role as a global reserve currency.

This morning, data on the Eurozone consumer price index for February and the core CPI are expected to be released. If price pressure eases, the euro will continue to decline. With inflation below analysts' expectations, the likelihood of additional ECB policy easing will increase—although this is unlikely. Recently, the ECB has strongly rejected any interest rate cuts, stating that it has everything under control and that the current strong euro growth does not concern it.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I can buy euros if the price reaches around 1.1686 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1732. At the point of 1.1732, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can expect the euro to rise only after a sharp rise in inflation today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1657 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.1686 and 1.1732 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the 1.1657 level is reached (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1605, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will persist today in any case. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to drop.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1686 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1657 and 1.1605 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.